[NTA]

No, Trump will not be President again.

I won this pretend bet twice (unfortunately was correct) both times when O was elected.

Did not bet on the 2016. Just too close to call.

Reasons for this latest bet:
I know lots of young people and there will be millions of new 18+ voters in Nov., and lots less older conservative folks as they die off. The dems will own them and most every other young voter with the promise to forgive college debts.
https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/

The economy is many years beyond a normal correction or worse. My odds are 50%+ the recession / dip is coming before Nov elections. Discordant world events beyond Trump's control are on a trip wire. The current Fed actions are barely enough to keep the stock market propped up, underlying current / future trends are not good.

Trump continues to step on his own tail with his 'off teleprompter' moments. One or more will be fatal to his election.

Loyalty to Trump, even by his most trusted supporters/employees, dies fast as time goes by. They flip.

The deep state, it works, it has now doubled-down and will prevail. (To the extent that Trump may not even run again).

 

[Harhib]

I fervently hope you are wrong, I fear you are right.

 

[Malum Prohibitum]

We had a stock market correction in 2018. Not enough?

 

[OWM]

Somebody remember to resurrect this thread one year from now when Trump starts his Second Term. A nice evening to all.

 

[Phil1979]

Trump's pickup of minority voters is enough by itself to offset new, mush-for-brains young voters. And enough new voters for Trump will be enough to replace the dying old ones.

I'm not worried. Trump will win bigly. You can thank the Democrats with Trump derangement syndrome and their impeachment farce for helping ensure his re-election.

 

[Nemo]

Don't forget to credit Gov Coonman Northam in Va with his-- no one will take your guns comments and pushing on banning anything that will accept a magazine over 10 rounds.

I suspect that (along with VCDL) has got some actual interest/concern going in other states.

Nemo

 

[AzB]

I suspect that AOC and the squad's efforts to fracture the Democratic party will help Republicans in general. I think that some of the younger, more idealistic Dems underestimate the number of moderate Dems there are. I have several friends who are moderates, and they are not happy with the push of radical socialism. And the two I go shooting with are getting more and more concerned that the radical left's claims of "common sense gun control" are coverups for elimination of the right to self defense.

But I agree with your point. A slowdown in the economy will hurt Trump And the Dems know this too.

Who controls the Fed?

 

[Malum Prohibitum]

Who controls the Fed?

Seven members with staggered 14 year terms. Appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. From there they operate independently for the 14 year term. The President can remove only "for cause." No reappointment at the end of the term.

Only five are serving. Trump has appointed two rounds of candidates. The Senate took no action on the first two, and the second two withdrew their names. Trump has not nominated a third set of two but tweeted two names this last summer (2019).

Tweet. LOL!

No idea why Trump has not formally sent their nominations to the Senate.

 

[Savannah Dan]

My take is that NTA is wrong on all counts.
Betting that O was going to win both times were easy bets.
in 2016, people I know who took what the media said for what it was, made up stuff, were pretty confident that Trump was going to win.

 

[Wegahe]

I guess I should jump in this thread with my 2 cents. I knew Trump would win in 2016 even though the polls all showed everyone else was above him and he was lagging way behind. All you need to is watch all the rallies and pick the winner by the crowd size. None of the other hopefuls can even match his overflow crowd. NONE!!! He plays much larger venues and raises more than 4 times as much money than anyone else. His fund raising is well over $600,000 mostly from small contributors.

 

[NTA]

Well the stock market is under good control by the FED. Wonder how long they can do this ? See the first chart (labeled 7):
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/d...the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero)

 

[Malum Prohibitum]

His fund raising is well over $600,000 . . .

$600,000?

He raised $46,000,000 just this quarter! https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/02/trump-campaign-fundraising-46-million-092579

 

[Wegahe]

$600,000?

He raised $46,000,000 just this quarter! https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/02/trump-campaign-fundraising-46-million-092579

I meant $600,000,000... It was at half a billion 2 months ago.

 

[gunsmoker]

Trump won because of name recognition and his candidacy being promoted, in the early stages, by the media. They touted his as a GOP front-runner because they wanted to set him up as a strawman--the weakest Republican with the most baggage, the most skeletons in the closet, TO GO UP AGAINST the strongest Democrat: Lady Senator, Sec. of State, Experienced White House powerbroker.

THIS TIME AROUND, the media will be sure NOT to report anything favorable about the President. Ever. Nothing that could help him. They'll commit to being 100% mindless parrots and propagandists for the Democrat Party, and all the jackass party's talking points will be put in the mouths of every news anchor, commentator, and celebrity.

The American people aren't smart enough, nor do they really care enough, to see when they're being manipulated.

The only way the Dems could lose would be if they nominated a real communist, an extremist, a lunatic, or just somebody who comes across on TV as a douchenozzle. There are several Dems who don't fit that description, and would easily win over Trump with the media's help. Eliziabeth Warren is their strongest candidate, I think. (Not that I believe she's the best of their field, but I think she'd currently the most electable.)

 

[OWM]

The American people aren't smart enough, nor do they really care enough, to see when they're being manipulated.

You are I would assume an American do you consider yourself an exception to that statement?

 

[Mrs_Esterhouse]

You are I would assume an American do you consider yourself an exception to that statement?

It's no secret that GS is a bit of an elitist, but Americans are by-in-large ignorant and naive.

I would venture to guess 90% of the population would be unable to identify Switzerland on an unlabeled map.

 

[moe mensale]

THIS TIME AROUND, the media will be sure NOT to report anything favorable about the President. Ever. Nothing that could help him. They'll commit to being 100% mindless parrots and propagandists for the Democrat Party, and all the jackass party's talking points will be put in the mouths of every news anchor, commentator, and celebrity.

What do you mean by "this time around?" The legacy media has been completely negative about Trump since before Nov 8, 2016. More so since then and it hasn't abated.

 

[OWM]

It's no secret that GS is a bit of an elitist, but Americans are by-in-large ignorant and naive.

I would venture to guess 90% of the population would be unable to identify Switzerland on an unlabeled map.

Indeed.
95% closer to reality.

 

[atlsrt44]

That's easy. I've seen swiss cheese so all you have to do is look for the country full of holes

It's no secret that GS is a bit of an elitist, but Americans are by-in-large ignorant and naive.

I would venture to guess 90% of the population would be unable to identify Switzerland on an unlabeled map.

 

[Nemo]

He could be a news reporter. One could not point out Ukraine on a map to Sec. State. Pompeo on his request.

Nemo

https://dailycaller.com/2020/01/25/npr-reporter-mike-pompeo-cursed-out-ukraine-map/