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7,501 Posts
No, Trump will not be President again.
I won this pretend bet twice (unfortunately was correct) both times when O was elected.
Did not bet on the 2016. Just too close to call.
Reasons for this latest bet:
I know lots of young people and there will be millions of new 18+ voters in Nov., and lots less older conservative folks as they die off. The dems will own them and most every other young voter with the promise to forgive college debts.
https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/
The economy is many years beyond a normal correction or worse. My odds are 50%+ the recession / dip is coming before Nov elections. Discordant world events beyond Trump's control are on a trip wire. The current Fed actions are barely enough to keep the stock market propped up, underlying current / future trends are not good.
Trump continues to step on his own tail with his 'off teleprompter' moments. One or more will be fatal to his election.
Loyalty to Trump, even by his most trusted supporters/employees, dies fast as time goes by. They flip.
The deep state, it works, it has now doubled-down and will prevail. (To the extent that Trump may not even run again).
I won this pretend bet twice (unfortunately was correct) both times when O was elected.
Did not bet on the 2016. Just too close to call.
Reasons for this latest bet:
I know lots of young people and there will be millions of new 18+ voters in Nov., and lots less older conservative folks as they die off. The dems will own them and most every other young voter with the promise to forgive college debts.
https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/
The economy is many years beyond a normal correction or worse. My odds are 50%+ the recession / dip is coming before Nov elections. Discordant world events beyond Trump's control are on a trip wire. The current Fed actions are barely enough to keep the stock market propped up, underlying current / future trends are not good.
Trump continues to step on his own tail with his 'off teleprompter' moments. One or more will be fatal to his election.
Loyalty to Trump, even by his most trusted supporters/employees, dies fast as time goes by. They flip.
The deep state, it works, it has now doubled-down and will prevail. (To the extent that Trump may not even run again).