Odds - More or less likely?

Discussion in 'Off-topic' started by Malum Prohibitum, May 8, 2007.

  1. Malum Prohibitum

    Malum Prohibitum Moderator Staff Member

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    Now that the DC Court of Appeals has refused to rehear Parker at the petition of DC, do you think it is less likely or more likely that the Supreme Court will accept a petition from DC and rule on the case?
     
  2. pro2am

    pro2am New Member

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    I'm not too familiar with rules of law, so take this for what its worth. Isn't the appeals process designed to appeal a ruling on some point of law, other than constitutional?

    Either way, I think the SC will have to hear the case if DC takes it there. It seems to me that it is clearly a constitutional issue and they are the court of last resort after all. From what I've read, that was the intention of the original filers anyway, to see that the case had a better chance of making through to the SC by the way they took on only specific clients and had a great case (obviously).

    :2cents:
     

  3. USMC - Retired

    USMC - Retired Active Member

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    Less likely. The Supreme Court has never wanted anything to do with a second amendment case and will avoid it not matter what. :x
     
  4. pro2am

    pro2am New Member

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    Let me add one more comment.

    If the SC does refuse the case, by default does that mean that they agree with the lower court ruling because they let it stand?
     
  5. Rammstein

    Rammstein New Member

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    I am gonna say this is going all the way to SCOTUS.
     
  6. ber950

    ber950 Active Member

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    More likely I think certain Justices have been waiting for the right 2A case to hear. I think this is that case.
     
  7. Malum Prohibitum

    Malum Prohibitum Moderator Staff Member

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    Unfortunately, I agree with you.

    I do, however, think it more likely that they will take this case then any of the other two recent cases (Emerson and Silveira) because of the publicity, the pure federal question, the fact that it is in the nation's capitol, the fact that it really changes things in a way Emerson did not, and the real conflict in the circuits now (with two circuits clearly holding that the Second Amendment protects the right of the people rather than the authority of the state).

    So, less likely than before but more likely than any other case.
     
  8. Malum Prohibitum

    Malum Prohibitum Moderator Staff Member

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    It means nothing, really. Yes, the case will stand, in DC. Every other circuit's prior holdings will stand, too, which means that federal law will mean something different in different areas of the country.
     
  9. kkennett

    kkennett New Member

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    From Eugene Volokh:

    2. Chances of the Supreme Court's Hearing the Case: High, I'd say well over 50% (unless Congress moots the question by preempting D.C.'s gun ban). That's a rare thing to say, given that the Court hears only about 1% of the cases that it's asked to hear. But here there is a split among federal courts of appeals on an important constitutional question — the D.C. Circuit and the Fifth Circuit take the individual rights view (see here and here for why the Fifth Circuit's decision can't be dismissed as dictum), while I think nine other circuits take the collective rights view. There is also a split between a federal court of appeals and D.C.'s highest court on the constitutionality of a specific law, which is itself usually seen as a strong signal in favor of cert. This is also the sort of question that the Justices would likely think ought to be decided by the Supreme Court; it's one thing to have different views in different circuits on some technical question, and another to have different views on whether an Amendment in the Bill of Rights secures an individual right or not.
     
  10. pro2am

    pro2am New Member

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    That's what I said! Well...sort of...trying to say anyway.
     
  11. Tinkerhell

    Tinkerhell Active Member

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    when will we know if SCOTUS will hear it?
    (and don't tell me - when they announce it....)

    Is there any time frame or anything or what? How does it work from this point?
     
  12. kkennett

    kkennett New Member

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    Cert petition is due in 90 days. (~ mid August). Petition likely to be considered at the 'long conference' at the end of September. Order of grant or denial first Monday in October. Oral arguments before Jan 2008 would require expedited briefing, which they have done in the recent past to fill the scant docket. So, late 2007, early 2008 for oral arguments.
     
  13. Malum Prohibitum

    Malum Prohibitum Moderator Staff Member

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    More from Volokh:
     
  14. Malum Prohibitum

    Malum Prohibitum Moderator Staff Member

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    What if DC gets clever?

    Might they NOT appeal and let it stand?

    Then they can pass laws up to the limit of the Parker decision, and will be on better footing years from now when another case comes up.
     
  15. Malum Prohibitum

    Malum Prohibitum Moderator Staff Member

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    For example, this is the new law the DC counsel is cirulating as a proposal:

     
  16. GeorgiaGlocker

    GeorgiaGlocker Romans 1:16

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    WHAT?? This is a desperate attempt by DC to get around SCOTUS from hearing the case in my opinion. You have to be 30? 2000 hrs of training? provisional? credit score? $3000 non-refundable application fee? I am utterly speechless. This is :bsflag: .

    I hope SCOTUS hears it.
     
  17. ber950

    ber950 Active Member

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    They will just be right back where they started. Those conditions are not even close to reasonable. Worse off actually because they would have already conceded to the individual rights argument.
     
  18. Adam5

    Adam5 Atlanta Overwatch

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    I'm right there with you. $28,000 initially + $40,000 per year??

    A parking or speeding ticket make you ineligible? 2000 hours of training is 50 weeks at 40 hours a week!!! A minimum credit score of 750.... I'm also calling :bsflag:.
     
  19. Malum Prohibitum

    Malum Prohibitum Moderator Staff Member

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    We have a winner! =D>