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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Now that the DC Court of Appeals has refused to rehear Parker at the petition of DC, do you think it is less likely or more likely that the Supreme Court will accept a petition from DC and rule on the case?
 

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I'm not too familiar with rules of law, so take this for what its worth. Isn't the appeals process designed to appeal a ruling on some point of law, other than constitutional?

Either way, I think the SC will have to hear the case if DC takes it there. It seems to me that it is clearly a constitutional issue and they are the court of last resort after all. From what I've read, that was the intention of the original filers anyway, to see that the case had a better chance of making through to the SC by the way they took on only specific clients and had a great case (obviously).

:2cents:
 

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Less likely. The Supreme Court has never wanted anything to do with a second amendment case and will avoid it not matter what. :x
 

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Let me add one more comment.

If the SC does refuse the case, by default does that mean that they agree with the lower court ruling because they let it stand?
 

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I am gonna say this is going all the way to SCOTUS.
 

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More likely I think certain Justices have been waiting for the right 2A case to hear. I think this is that case.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
USMC - Retired said:
Less likely. The Supreme Court has never wanted anything to do with a second amendment case and will avoid it not matter what. :x
Unfortunately, I agree with you.

I do, however, think it more likely that they will take this case then any of the other two recent cases (Emerson and Silveira) because of the publicity, the pure federal question, the fact that it is in the nation's capitol, the fact that it really changes things in a way Emerson did not, and the real conflict in the circuits now (with two circuits clearly holding that the Second Amendment protects the right of the people rather than the authority of the state).

So, less likely than before but more likely than any other case.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
pro2am said:
Let me add one more comment.

If the SC does refuse the case, by default does that mean that they agree with the lower court ruling because they let it stand?
It means nothing, really. Yes, the case will stand, in DC. Every other circuit's prior holdings will stand, too, which means that federal law will mean something different in different areas of the country.
 

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From Eugene Volokh:

2. Chances of the Supreme Court's Hearing the Case: High, I'd say well over 50% (unless Congress moots the question by preempting D.C.'s gun ban). That's a rare thing to say, given that the Court hears only about 1% of the cases that it's asked to hear. But here there is a split among federal courts of appeals on an important constitutional question — the D.C. Circuit and the Fifth Circuit take the individual rights view (see here and here for why the Fifth Circuit's decision can't be dismissed as dictum), while I think nine other circuits take the collective rights view. There is also a split between a federal court of appeals and D.C.'s highest court on the constitutionality of a specific law, which is itself usually seen as a strong signal in favor of cert. This is also the sort of question that the Justices would likely think ought to be decided by the Supreme Court; it's one thing to have different views in different circuits on some technical question, and another to have different views on whether an Amendment in the Bill of Rights secures an individual right or not.
 

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when will we know if SCOTUS will hear it?
(and don't tell me - when they announce it....)

Is there any time frame or anything or what? How does it work from this point?
 

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Cert petition is due in 90 days. (~ mid August). Petition likely to be considered at the 'long conference' at the end of September. Order of grant or denial first Monday in October. Oral arguments before Jan 2008 would require expedited briefing, which they have done in the recent past to fill the scant docket. So, late 2007, early 2008 for oral arguments.
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
More from Volokh:
http://volokh.com/posts/1178646019.shtml

The D.C. Circuit refused to rehear the Parker case en banc. A few thoughts on this case in the Supreme Court:

1. Timing: I assume that the District of Columbia will petition for certiorari; it has 90 days to do this, so the petition will likely be filed in mid-August. That would mean the Supreme Court will decide in late September whether to hear the case â€" and if it does agree to hear the case ("grant cert"), it will hear it in early 2008, with a decision handed down by early July of 2008.

2. Chances of the Supreme Court's Hearing the Case: High, I'd say well over 50% (unless Congress moots the question by preempting D.C.'s gun ban). That's a rare thing to say, given that the Court hears only about 1% of the cases that it's asked to hear. But here there is a split among federal courts of appeals on an important constitutional question â€" the D.C. Circuit and the Fifth Circuit take the individual rights view (see here and here for why the Fifth Circuit's decision can't be dismissed as dictum), while I think nine other circuits take the collective rights view. There is also a split between a federal court of appeals and D.C.'s highest court on the constitutionality of a specific law, which is itself usually seen as a strong signal in favor of cert. This is also the sort of question that the Justices would likely think ought to be decided by the Supreme Court; it's one thing to have different views in different circuits on some technical question, and another to have different views on whether an Amendment in the Bill of Rights secures an individual right or not.

3. Chances of the Supreme Court's Accepting the Individual Right View: Now that's a mystery. I think the individual rights view is correct, and I think the historical evidence should be a powerful influence on the Court.

But note how the vote in the D.C. Circuit broke down: Two conservatives (Silberman and Griffith) supported the individual rights view, but one Republican appointee (Henderson) seemed to reject it. In the en banc vote, the three Clinton appointees (Rogers, Tatel, and Garland) voted to rehear the case, but so did Randolph, a Bush Sr. appointee who to my knowledge is a pretty solid conservative; it's possible that they voted to rehear the case en banc just because it's extremely important, deepens a circuit split, and creates a split with the D.C. Court of Appeals â€" but generally speaking judges don't vote to rehear a case en banc unless they suspect the panel decision was mistaken. (On the other hand, sometimes judges vote against rehearing a case en banc even though they disagree with the panel decision; I'm not sure why Henderson voted against en banc, but I take it that it isn't because she changed her minds on the merits.)

It's true that in the Ninth Circuit's Silveira v. Lockyer, archliberal Judge Pregerson and Clinton appointee Judge Gould endorsed the individual rights view, alongside the conservative Judges Kozinski, Kleinfeld, O'Scannlain, and T.G. Nelson; so it might be that some of the liberals on the Supreme Court will take a similar view. Still, supporters of the individual rights view ought to worry about the possibility that the Supreme Court vote on the merits will break down much as the D.C. vote seems to have â€" the liberal Justices being joined by one or two of the conservatives to endorse the states' rights / collective rights view. And on the Supreme Court, that would make a majority for that view, rather than the 2-1 split on the D.C. panel, and the 5-5 split on the court as a whole.

4. What Might a Pro-Individual-Rights Decision from the Supreme Court Do? I expect it will be very narrow, will leave open considerable room for gun controls that are less comprehensive than D.C.'s total ban, and will not resolve the question whether the Second Amendment is incorporated in the Fourteenth Amendment to cover state regulations (though that latter question would of course come up in another case within a few years).

5. How Might the Case Affect the Presidential Campaign? I asked a set of questions about this when the Parker panel decision was handed down; let me repeat them, now that the prospect of Supreme Court review in 2008 is less hypothetical, and now that we are further into the election campaign.

A. What, if anything, will the extra prominence of the issue do to the primaries?

B. Assume the decision comes down in late June 2008, and is 5-4 in favor of the individual rights theory. What will that do to the general Presidential election race?

C. Assume it's 5-4 in favor of the collective rights theory, with Kennedy joining the four liberals on the collective rights side. What will that do to the race? What if it's 5-4 with Roberts or Alito joining the liberals? I take it that if it's not 5-4, or (possibly) if it's 5-4 with a less liberal/conservative split, the effect will be less; is that right?

D. Or is this decision not that relevant, either on the theory that the issue won't energize people that much, or on the theory that plenty of people would be energized on gun control and the Second Amendment regardless of how the case comes down?

Naturally, if one of the Justices retires this year or next, the effect on the Presidential race would be still greater, I suspect.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
What if DC gets clever?

Might they NOT appeal and let it stand?

Then they can pass laws up to the limit of the Parker decision, and will be on better footing years from now when another case comes up.
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
For example, this is the new law the DC counsel is cirulating as a proposal:

Pistols may be kept loaded, and carried in private homes provided such pistol is registered.

In order to register a pistol, an applicant must be at least 30 years old, have never been convicted of any felony, misdemeanor, civil traffic infraction, or parking violation. The applicant must have an average credit score of above 750, and write an essay entitled "What Militia Service Means To Me". Said essay must be approved by the Dean of Georgetown University. Applications must be accompanied by a $3,000 non-refundable application fee.

If such application is "provisionally" approved, then the applicant will be required to take 2 thousand hours of an approved firearms training course conducted by the D.C. Chief of Police (courses are offered in June and November in odd numbered years) with the final test proving enough marksmanship to qualify for the U.S. Olympic team. Graduation fee is $10,000

If an applicant passes this test then after an initial waiting period of two years, he shall be granted a pistol registration. This registration will not be valid in any home with a person prohibited from federal or local law from possessing such pistol, or be kept in a home where said person lives within 1000 feet, or where children live, nor in any circumstance shall it be valid outside the applicant's residence.

Initial registration is $25,000 with renews at $10,000. Your pistol registration must be renewed every three months.

Thank you for your interest in your D.C. Pistol Registration!
 

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Malum Prohibitum said:
For example, this is the new law the DC counsel is cirulating as a proposal:

Pistols may be kept loaded, and carried in private homes provided such pistol is registered.

In order to register a pistol, an applicant must be at least 30 years old, have never been convicted of any felony, misdemeanor, civil traffic infraction, or parking violation. The applicant must have an average credit score of above 750, and write an essay entitled "What Militia Service Means To Me". Said essay must be approved by the Dean of Georgetown University. Applications must be accompanied by a $3,000 non-refundable application fee.

If such application is "provisionally" approved, then the applicant will be required to take 2 thousand hours of an approved firearms training course conducted by the D.C. Chief of Police (courses are offered in June and November in odd numbered years) with the final test proving enough marksmanship to qualify for the U.S. Olympic team. Graduation fee is $10,000

If an applicant passes this test then after an initial waiting period of two years, he shall be granted a pistol registration. This registration will not be valid in any home with a person prohibited from federal or local law from possessing such pistol, or be kept in a home where said person lives within 1000 feet, or where children live, nor in any circumstance shall it be valid outside the applicant's residence.

Initial registration is $25,000 with renews at $10,000. Your pistol registration must be renewed every three months.

Thank you for your interest in your D.C. Pistol Registration!
WHAT?? This is a desperate attempt by DC to get around SCOTUS from hearing the case in my opinion. You have to be 30? 2000 hrs of training? provisional? credit score? $3000 non-refundable application fee? I am utterly speechless. This is :bsflag: .

I hope SCOTUS hears it.
 

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They will just be right back where they started. Those conditions are not even close to reasonable. Worse off actually because they would have already conceded to the individual rights argument.
 

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GeorgiaGlocker said:
Malum Prohibitum said:
For example, this is the new law the DC counsel is cirulating as a proposal:

Pistols may be kept loaded, and carried in private homes provided such pistol is registered.

In order to register a pistol, an applicant must be at least 30 years old, have never been convicted of any felony, misdemeanor, civil traffic infraction, or parking violation. The applicant must have an average credit score of above 750, and write an essay entitled "What Militia Service Means To Me". Said essay must be approved by the Dean of Georgetown University. Applications must be accompanied by a $3,000 non-refundable application fee.

If such application is "provisionally" approved, then the applicant will be required to take 2 thousand hours of an approved firearms training course conducted by the D.C. Chief of Police (courses are offered in June and November in odd numbered years) with the final test proving enough marksmanship to qualify for the U.S. Olympic team. Graduation fee is $10,000

If an applicant passes this test then after an initial waiting period of two years, he shall be granted a pistol registration. This registration will not be valid in any home with a person prohibited from federal or local law from possessing such pistol, or be kept in a home where said person lives within 1000 feet, or where children live, nor in any circumstance shall it be valid outside the applicant's residence.

Initial registration is $25,000 with renews at $10,000. Your pistol registration must be renewed every three months.

Thank you for your interest in your D.C. Pistol Registration!
WHAT?? This is a desperate attempt by DC to get around SCOTUS from hearing the case in my opinion. You have to be 30? 2000 hrs of training? provisional? credit score? $3000 non-refundable application fee? I am utterly speechless. This is :bsflag: .

I hope SCOTUS hears it.
I'm right there with you. $28,000 initially + $40,000 per year??

In order to register a pistol, an applicant must be at least 30 years old, have never been convicted of any felony, misdemeanor, civil traffic infraction, or parking violation
A parking or speeding ticket make you ineligible? 2000 hours of training is 50 weeks at 40 hours a week!!! A minimum credit score of 750.... I'm also calling :bsflag:.
 
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