[Malum Prohibitum]

Taking information from Sheriff Berry on another thread and jrm's exceedingly competent math skills and Census research, we arrive at the following information.

We now have an interesting statistic on the number of GFL holders. For those of you that did not see it, the Oconee County sheriff has posted that there are 3,652 GFLs in Oconee County.

The 2005 census population of Oconee County was 29,748. So, 12.27% of Oconee residents have GFLs.

Applying that figure to GAs 2005 census population of 9,072,576, there would be 1,113,791 GFL holders in GA.

:shock:

And not a murderer among more than one million people? How many murderers would it take just to equal the average in the population?

 

[SheriffOconee]

I wonder if any other probate courts have that info at their fingertips. I would like to see if there if these figures run that close statewide.

 

[Malum Prohibitum]

They report the number of applications to the GBI every year, but that does not really tell us how many are out there, because of denials, renewals, &c.

I would like to know this information, too, for public relations efforts. This is an extremely law-abiding group of people, and if there are over a million, well, that would be something a lot of people simply do not realize.

 

[SheriffOconee]

I was thinking the same thing. That is a awful lot of folks who also vote, etc....

 

[foshizzle]

I'm skeptical. I think the rate of licenses is higher in rural counties than those in the metro area (where there are more people).

My GFL was issued in August of 2006 in Dekalb and my Permit # is 2006-13xx. In my mind, that means I am around the 1,300th person to receive a GFL in my county this year. I doubt that they repeat numbers once it hits 9999... Anyone else get their permit recently from DeKalb?

With 677,959 people living in DeKalb and maybe 2,000 permits by now, your numbers take a nose-dive lol.

Maybe we could get numbers with an FOI request to DeKalb? Can't hurt to try. I'm making one to them soon on another issue... maybe I'll send two and see if they can at least give me numbers... I know they can't give me names.

 

[viper32cm]

I'm in the high 20xx from DeKalb and I got mine Monday. Somehow I doubt they'll break 2100

 

[SheriffOconee]

The number 3652 is total, valid issued GFL's. Not the total that were issued in one year.
The GFL is valid for 5 years. Now, if DeKalb numbers GFL's by YEAR-ORDER ISSUED, then there are roughly 5 times how ever many are issued in a year. So, if DeKalb issues 2100 permits in the year 2006, then it seems that there are probably over 10,000 valid permits or so issued in DeKalb, or am I missing something???
FYI, my permit was issued Feb 04, number 25XX. There have been 1100 issued since mine, give or take a dozen or so.

 

[foshizzle]

Well, using DeKalb as example... I think we can safely extrapolate 2100 or so permits this year using mine and vipers as a baseline.

So, let's double that to around 4,000 just to assume that this is a slow year.

5 years x 4,000 a year = 20,000 permits

20,000 permits / 677,000 = ~.03% and that is on the high side!

Now, lets assume that of that .03 that probably 25% of people have probably either moved or don't even carry.

So there is a .0225% chance that someone next to you in DeKalb packs a CCW. Pretty miniscule. I bet there are a lot more bad guys than good guys too!

Actually, I'm pretty depressed now. I sure likedthe prospect of a million Georgians rising up against the public gathering law... sadly it's going to have to be just a few of us.

One could probably make an argument why DeKalb is so much more dangerous than the sheriffs county. We don't have enough good guys with the tools to protect themselves!

 

[pro2am]

I agree that your distribution is different in rural vs. non-rural counties.

The distribution may be similar to Democrat (Liberal) and Republican (Conservative) congressional districts. If that isn't too far of a reach you could do a sampling of Democratic/Republican counties and get their GFL counts to confirm that information, then extrapolate the number of permits to the rest of the state.

Or, you could just ask the GBI how many applications they do per year, and throw out a percentage of them as being non-issued. After all, like Malum said, we're all *mostly* law abiding citizens so I doubt too many felons will be applying.

 

[viper32cm]

One could probably make an argument why DeKalb is so much more dangerous than the sheriffs county. We don't have enough good guys with the tools to protect themselves!

I'd consider that a safe bet, especially around Memorial!

 

[ber950]

12.27% of Oconee residents have GFLs.

Discount those ineligible (under 21, drug convictions, domestic abuse, felons) and that number gets real impressive. I would guess closer to 25%

 

[jrm]

foshizzle,

I think your decimal point is off. 20,000 is 3% of 677,000, not 0.03%.

If the statewide average is between Oconee's 12% and Dekalb's 3%, we could have a statewide number of around 7%, which still is a very respectable over half-million people.

 

[Malum Prohibitum]

. . . and jrm's exceedingly competent math skills . . .

See what I mean?

 

[SheriffOconee]

I learned in the 3rd grade not to correct anyone else's math....Mrs Bowen instilled a fear of raising my hand to do any public cypherin'....
I figure somewhere between a 500,000 and 750,000 statewide permits as well.....that is a LOT of folks.

 

[Malum Prohibitum]

How many murderers would it take just to equal the average in the population?

Well, I do not know. But we can look at the frequency of murder and use that to arrive at a number. According to the GBI there were 5.8 murders per 100,000 people in Georgia. To carry that frequency over to the total number of firearms license holders, using the 500,000 to 750,000 estimate, would require 29 to 43.5 murders in just one year committed by firearms license holders - just to equal the average! If we subtracted the firearms license holders from the general population, to make the comparison one between license holders and non-license holders, remembr that the frequency rate would go up, rendering the comparison even more stark.

Tell the Brady Campaign to stick that in their joint and smoke it!

What about violent crime?

Again, according to the same source, there were 427.9 violent crimes per 100,000 people in 2005. Using the same 500,000 to 750,000 estimate of the number of license holders, there would need to be 2,139.5 to 3,209.25 violent crimes in one year among license holders to equal the general population (which includes the license holders).

Those figures are for one year. How many murders were committed by firearms license holders in 2005? How many violent crimes were committed by firearms license holders in 2005?

By the way, Oconee's numbers look pretty good. No murders, no robberies - Fulton does not compare well at all!

They list crimes against police officers (I did not realize we lost 5 police officers in 2005! ), but do not list crimes BY police officers. I would like to find this information if it is compiled somewhere, not to gripe about police, but because I bet firearms license holders have a better record on murder and violent crimes than even police officers. I know police officers who have committed murder and other violent crimes (and other felonies), but I do not know any firearms license holders who have done so, and I know a lot of both. That is nothing more than anecdotal, however.

 

[SheriffOconee]

MP, Assaults on Officers and Line of Duty Deaths of Officers are a seperate statistic submitted by each agency in their monthly UCR report to the FBI.
I am not aware of a database that collects CRIMES committed by officers, however, Georgia POST Council is the state body that certifies Peace Officers in Georgia. and they do keep numbers about the certificates either put on probation, suspended or revoked. If memory serves POST Council does roughly 900 investigations a year, not sure how many they actually discipline, but for the record, stuff that doesn't make a blip on a citizens record can get your certificate punched by POST. POST is a well run effective State Agency, and if you screw up I can assure you they will get medevil on you.

 

[Malum Prohibitum]

. . . stuff that doesn't make a blip on a citizens record can get your certificate punched by POST. POST is a well run effective State Agency, and if you screw up I can assure you they will get medevil on you.

Yeah, that is why their numbers would not be any good for statistical comparison. I want to compare the stuff that the anti-gun crowd is worried about - violent crime with guns, murder, that sort of thing. The anti-gun crowd usually says, "Only police officers should have guns or carry into . . ."

So having a group that is statistically less prone to crime, i.e., safer, carry guns in any particular area seems to me to be a good argument for lifting restrictions.

 

[SheriffOconee]

I think a telling statistic would be the number of GFL's that are REVOKED by a Probate Judge. We have done maybe 5 or so in 14 years. Judge enters an order directed a Deputy Sheriff to seize the GFL. It has been done for conviction(s) and on once for someone who lied on the application about their address. However, I bet no one database keeps the numbers of revocations.

 

[Malum Prohibitum]

This would be yet one more benefit to having a central authority like the Department of Agriculture (Florida uses the Department of Agriculture) issue licenses.

I am not sure, however, that revocation would directly relate to dangerousness, for the same reason that the POST certification revocations do not relate to dangerousness.

They might or might not.

Why would somebody lie about their address if they did not have some other, disqualifying factor?

 

[foshizzle]

I learned in the 3rd grade not to correct anyone else's math....Mrs Bowen instilled a fear of raising my hand to do any public cypherin'

It's OK to correct my math when it's off 1000%... or was it 10,000%? I don't know how I even finished college sometimes.