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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
I saw this on another forum, which linked back to reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/4v3715/nfa_prediction_tool/
Basically download the spreadsheet from the google doc then enter you information and it spits out a projected date.

So for example, I put in that my check was cashed on 3/28/16, fill out it is a Form 4 suppressor (in state). Poof: projected approval date 8/25/16.

It says the average, based on data for others around my check cashed time frame is 8/12/16. (boy wouldn't that be nice if it was approved yesterday?)

I think I filled it out right at least.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 · (Edited)
Now NFATracker does have its own prediction calculate, but its a simple % based and month based. It also requires you have created an account and entered the information on items you have submitted. So based on their tracker (which uses last 6 months of data), I have a 75% chance by end of August and a 96% chance by end of September. So it seems fairly accurate by comparison.



Now with that said, I think anyone who has had a check cashed after 7/13 should basically ignore any and all data they receive from any source. I think the data is going to be seriously screwed by the influx of 7/13 buyers and its going to take months for the data to adjust accordingly. Hell, the data probably started screwing in the 30 days prior to 7/13.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
Well some statistic guru's have been looking over data, mainly number of yearly forms submitted and then some of the more recent reports of forms submitted in the last 30-90 days before 7/13 hit and they are predicting we may be looking at 12+ months again for a while. Some even think it could be like 14+ months. Now these are in the end just guestimates as hard numbers are not available, so take with a grain of salt. However with that said, people are pretty intelligent when it comes to this topic so I wouldn't disregard it outright.
 
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