Biden Ahead 14%

Discussion in 'Off-topic Political' started by Nemo, Oct 12, 2020.

  1. moe mensale

    moe mensale Well-Known Member

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    All states.
     
  2. moe mensale

    moe mensale Well-Known Member

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    You're a smart man. :righton: :lol:
     

  3. HJB

    HJB Active Member

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    Wow really ? I don't think anyone polls for the president at colleges/universities, public assistance locations or anywhere that you might find large groups of people. I would venture to say that there is virtually zero "face-to-face" polling done. They are mostly telephone or on-line polls.

    Curious as to where you get your information that many of the people responding to polls have not registered to vote ?
     
  4. Wegahe

    Wegahe NRA Instructor

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    My daughter went to college and was polled twice on campus. She was also polled at Cumberland Mall. Mass gatherings are their favorite places for polls when they need numbers rapidly. Phone polls are slow and difficult to get out with enough numbers to make it count on a daily basis. If you get 10 or 20 people to take a poll and 10 or 20 market places such as malls and shopping centers you can get hundreds of responses in a few hours where it would take days to accomplish the same numbers by phone. It would also take a lot more phone pollsters.
     
  5. dhaller

    dhaller Active Member

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    538's pollster ratings; kind of interesting:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

    The better pollsters still use live interviews as part of their methodology (generally... that's often modified in the current pandemic climate).

    I've used focus groups in my impact research firm, and even those I take with a grain of salt, so I'm just very leery of polls. *Really* good statistics is (1) very hard and (2) almost more art than science.

    As I say, I like looking at the betting odds, because in my experience* there are some *seriously* smart people connected to very specific news sources 24/7, just big nerds running what amounts to a large data analysis project. Better than A.I., in my view (for now.)

    Today it's Biden/Trump: 61/39... so expect some World Class Crazy from The Don in the next few days (he must watch the odds too? Guy was a (failed) casino magnate, I mean, he must be plugged-in a little!)

    DH

    *I love the math of gambling, but I don't believe in gambling myself (I don't drink or smoke, either, just boring, I know!)
     
  6. HJB

    HJB Active Member

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    Yes, interesting. And note the methods used from your link.

    "The methodology or methodologies a pollster routinely uses in its election polls as of the most recent campaign cycles. The following categories are listed:

    • Live — Live telephone interviews, including cellphones.
    • Landline — Live telephone interviews, not including cellphones.
    • Live* — Live telephone interviews, but FiveThirtyEight cannot confirm whether cellphones are included.
    • IVR — Interactive voice response, otherwise known as automated polls or “robopolls.”
    • Online — Poll conducted by internet; generally, this means by web browser, but it’s inclusive of text message or application-based polling of mobile phones.
    • Mail — By U.S. mail or other “snail mail” service."
    Don't see any of them using face to face in-person polling.
     
  7. dhaller

    dhaller Active Member

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    Right. "Live" means phone polls; the big "advancement" in polling nowadays is use of cell phone numbers (which was formerly not the case, but times change.)

    Polls require strict demographic controls, and like email lists, phone lists can be purchased according to precise demographic mixes; that really can't be achieved in "face to face" polling.

    My guess is the the face to face "polls" one finds at universities and malls and the like are list-drivers for marketing initiatives. There's a lot of money in "lists" (collecting email addresses, phone numbers, etc. with opt-in), so plenty of what I call "clipboard ladies" (usually pretty) go around doing "surveys" to collect opt-in contact info which is packaged and sold (maybe even to actual pollsters eventually!)

    DH
     
  8. StarJack

    StarJack Well Aged Member

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    "If you are a firm believer only in polling averages, this isn’t particularly meaningful, but if you are familiar with Trafalgar’s successes in 2016, when (unlike other pollsters) it had Trump leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania and, in 2018, Ron DeSantis winning his gubernatorial race, it is notable. Regardless, it’s worth knowing why one pollster is departing from nearly everyone else."

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/the-pollster-who-thinks-trump-is-ahead/?amp
     
    dhaller likes this.
  9. dhaller

    dhaller Active Member

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    Interesting, and in line with my experiences.

    I remember a couple of years ago, my daughter's 1st grade class had a family camping trip out at Hard Labor State Park, and the parents were all sitting around the campfire beering it up, and one Dad "confided" to me that he was conservative (he owns a major marketing and ad firm based in Atlanta... we were talking about Kemp, actually, and he mentioned that Kemp was a client of his, and a very nice guy.) I thought it was interesting that he was so guarded, but easily 99% of the families at our school are liberal to very liberal (what my dad calls "limousine liberals", granted, but still!)

    I can certainly see a number of Trump supporters kind of keeping it on the down-low if they work in knowledge industries, academia, etc.

    Thinking on it, I can think of another class dad who owns a construction company which, among other things, builds the cranes which load missiles onto US Navy subs... largest builder of cranes in the USA. He's an immensely wealthy guy with military contracts: almost HAS to be Republican, right? But you'd never know it... lives in Druid Hills, drives Teslas, etc.

    I'm sure the reverse is true as well: secretly liberal folks who send their kids to Greater Atlanta Christian, or work in law enforcement, etc. Probably not a great time to sport a Biden/Harris sticker on your Ford F150 when you park it at your local VFW lodge ;)

    The social stakes of political affiliation have spiked; absolutely sensible to correct for that in polling.

    DH
     
  10. OWM

    OWM Well-Known Member

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    Not at all. We make every attempt to recognize and help those with challenging disabilities and other issues to feel right at home.
     
  11. Craftsman

    Craftsman Well-Known Member

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    In general, Trump supporters (or conservatives in general) aren't going to try and get someone fired or ruin their business over political affiliation. Leftists consider that just part of their unrelenting grab for power. Kamala Harris not only refused to support the will of the electorate in California by not defending Proposition 8, leading to a de-facto default judgement at the Supreme Court, she attempted to circumvent an anti-KKK law (actually, she flat-out ignored it) protecting donors to political causes (not candidates), specifically supporters of Prop 8. She did this so these donors could be harassed and financially ruined for their daring to politically oppose her and the left. Folks on the right don't key cars with Biden/Harris bumper stickers or tear up signs and gloat on social media. While this does drive poll numbers down since people don't want their responses recorded, it does harden the resolve of Trump supporters.
     
    NTA likes this.
  12. Savannah Dan

    Savannah Dan Cross-drawer

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    Poll results are just a tool used to herd sheep.
     
  13. HJB

    HJB Active Member

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  14. MWAG

    MWAG Active Member

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    Yeah and Hillary was ahead 4 years ago too
     
    Phil1979 likes this.
  15. Phil1979

    Phil1979 Member Georgia Carry

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    The communists are desperate to destroy our country. The media will do anything to try and help them. Naturally, since they are communists too.
     
  16. Schweisshund

    Schweisshund Well-Known Member

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    Did anyone watch the debate?
     
  17. Phil1979

    Phil1979 Member Georgia Carry

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    I watched it. Trump did much better this time. Biden sealed his loss with his attack on the oil industry, by tying himself definitively with AOC and her crazy "green deal".
     
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  18. Billennium

    Billennium Custom User Title

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    I have already voted
     
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  19. dhaller

    dhaller Active Member

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    This is my basic position as well, which means I'm going to attend to other things (like launching a new venture, which I keep postponing somehow), tuck in early on November 3rd, and then wake up to review the inevitable election challenges and litigation.

    That, and I'll have a Thanksgiving camping trip to plan. Dutch oven turkey! Suggestions welcome ;)

    DH
     
  20. Bkite

    Bkite PawPaw x 3

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